Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.207877 6.210626 7.323539 8.645902 10.169639 11.865571 13.891039
2025-02-16 3.651240 4.907162 6.444184 8.445567 10.962646 14.001729 17.924495
2025-02-23 2.636836 3.935672 5.665067 8.096976 11.382619 15.616138 21.422699
2025-03-02 1.953904 3.207977 5.008678 7.717071 11.607521 16.901234 24.534451
2025-03-09 1.569398 2.803522 4.696270 7.711783 12.272119 18.763075 28.511631
2025-03-16 1.290732 2.493651 4.453418 7.741852 12.946922 20.652704 32.639682
2025-03-23 1.067019 2.222074 4.214517 7.723043 13.513589 22.396819 36.657278
2025-03-30 0.843311 1.898428 3.828261 7.396054 13.534460 23.286637 39.428888
2025-04-06 0.710082 1.715059 3.651861 7.389166 14.055535 24.969334 43.511016
2025-04-13 0.595635 1.542836 3.464482 7.329530 14.466014 26.486546 47.414351
2025-04-20 0.547877 1.503224 3.524176 7.726839 15.702953 29.442627 53.826410
2025-04-27 0.494458 1.438556 3.521735 8.000327 16.734073 32.113453 59.921707
2025-05-04 0.452132 1.394035 3.560110 8.369614 17.996635 35.308459 67.170100
2025-05-11 0.386138 1.273989 3.415562 8.348970 18.519515 37.244129 72.392785
2025-05-18 0.314085 1.117698 3.160866 8.060119 18.486315 38.170242 75.901737
2025-05-25 0.251211 0.967902 2.892249 7.699667 18.264425 38.718831 78.753260
2025-06-01 0.216345 0.891968 2.791236 7.700339 18.777298 40.668615 84.245683
2025-06-08 0.187911 0.827947 2.709010 7.732348 19.355025 42.774375 90.138164
2025-06-15 0.161718 0.762981 2.611893 7.714212 19.818769 44.681955 95.757690
2025-06-22 0.129813 0.665241 2.402994 7.387756 19.563871 45.136669 98.624513
2025-06-29 0.112067 0.615462 2.323689 7.380944 20.029260 47.072465 104.454817
2025-07-06 0.095578 0.564285 2.229620 7.321388 20.364020 48.755755 109.872767
2025-07-13 0.091173 0.564919 2.300047 7.718325 21.814606 52.858483 120.306934